Total confusion on the quarantine rules

We can only say: Beijing in a confusing mess over the fight against Covid-19 and the moribund economy is not recovering.
As I reported earlier: Mandatory 14 days quarantine

Adding to the confusion, I was told on 20 February: If you arrive from Germany using an international flight to Beijing and you have not been in China during the 14 days prior to your arrival, then you are not subject to the quarantine rules.
Source: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/aussenpolitik/laender/china-node/chinasicherheit/200466

While some embassies like Germany have announced the exemption, there is yet no clear official document from the Chinese side, at the time of posting this.

As a result, confusion. Beijing seems to stick to the quarantine, some compounds follow the Ministry of Foreign Affairs instructions, others follow the old Beijing rule.

The following article explains it:
“To Quarantine or Not To Quarantine: Confusion Reigns for Foreigners Returning from Overseas” by Joey Knotts,  The Beijinger on 20 February 2020
https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/02/20/quarantine-or-not-quarantine-confusion-reigns-over-beijings-rule-applied-returning
Since the announcement of a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine upon returning to Beijing, one question has been pouring through every English-language WeChat group: does this policy apply to foreigners who come into China from overseas?

As can happen, the answer has eluded onlookers due to the vague language of policy announcements that make no mention of either foreign passports or travel origins.
While common sense would dictate that someone returning from a country with next to zero infection rates would have a near-zero chance of having contacted the coronavirus, there is the chance of picking up the virus while in transit.
Up until yesterday, these announcements, when read literally, implied that all returning individuals must self-quarantine, regardless of where they are returning from or what passport they hold. It continues to be the case that if you’re coming from another part of China, you are expected to observe the 14-day quarantine.
However, starting Wednesday, several Beijing expats have reported receiving notice from their embassies that Beijing’s Foreign Affairs Office has exempted some foreigners from the quarantine requirement.
They said: foreign passport holders returning after two weeks overseas and who land in either Beijing Capital International Airport or Daxing International Airport are not required to quarantine themselves, strictly speaking.
(read the rest of the article online)

See also again what EUCCC posted today, repeating that “these exemptions have not yet been published, but are expected to be shortly.”
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/european-union-chamber-of-commerce-in-china_exemptions-to-quarantine-policy-for-foreign-activity-6636518447289339905-oGdh

My support for the fight against the virus

I joined some other expats in making wishes and support for the fight against the coronavirus:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/juBH0XzifdzpvrrtlkCP-Q
Click the first video where I am part of the expat group.

Economy

Some information that confirms what I wrote earlier: the impact on the economy will be severe. There is little room for optimism for the next coming months.
Also, Beijing government dismisses a rumor that schools in Beijing will reopen in early March.
Some headlines follow.

General comment from NYT, pretty accurate:
Is China strangling its own economy?
As China tightens the reins on the movements of people and goods to stem the coronavirus’s spread, some business leaders are taking the rare stand against Beijing to get their workers going again.
One-third of small firms in the country are on the brink of running out of cash over the next four weeks, according to a survey. Another third will run out of cash in the next two months. And one analysis found that virus containment efforts were stopping the flow of commerce.
Resolving economic woes and keeping the virus at bay will be a delicate dance. Manufacturers do not have the luxury of working from home, like tech companies do, but returning to business as usual could put employees at risk.
At Amazon, which relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing, the effects could be seen sooner than at other corporations because the retail giant often keeps fewer items on hand. It’s already worrying about its inventory.

From FT
China is attempting to restart an economy that has been effectively shuttered over the last three weeks without exacerbating the coronavirus outbreak.
Factories across much of the country are shut down or running at a fraction of capacity. One-third of China’s small firms, meanwhile, are in danger of running out of cash, per the NYT.
The economic implications are global. A fall in Chinese demand has hit oil prices. It has also exposed the dependence of many Africa economies on trade with China, the FT notes.

Airlines in trouble
Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region stand to lose $27.8 billion of revenue this year as they slash flights due to declining demand as a result of the coronavirus, according to a preliminary estimate from an industry body, reported Reuters.
The bulk of the losses will be borne by Chinese carriers, including a US$12.8 billion hit to the Chinese domestic market alone, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in a forecast released in New York on Thursday.
Chinese airlines have cut 80% of their planned capacity to, from and within China this week, according to flight data firm OAG, as they grapple with a sharp fall in demand due to the virus that has killed more than 2,100 people in China.
(Source: China Economic Review)

China nears takeover of HNA Group as virus hits business
China plans to take over indebted conglomerate HNA Group Co. and sell off its airline assets, the most dramatic step to date by the state to contain the deepening economic damage from the deadly coronavirus outbreak, reported Bloomberg.
The government of Hainan, the southern island province where HNA is based, is in talks to seize control of the group after the contagion hurt its ability to meet financial obligations, according to Bloomberg sources.
As President Xi Jinping seeks to prevent the short-term economic pain caused by the coronavirus from turning into a slump that outlasts the contagion, his government is considering direct cash infusions or mergers to stabilize the hobbled airline industry, while the People’s Bank of China said it will work on supporting domestic consumption. A takeover of a high-profile company like HNA would take those efforts to a new level.
Under the emerging plan, China would sell the bulk of HNA’s airline assets to the country’s three biggest carriers — Air China Ltd., China Southern Airlines Co. and China Eastern Airlines Corp. A bit sad for me as HNA had become my favorite airline.

From the European Chamber:
Letter to Members from President Wuttke:
Like all of you, the European Chamber has encountered significant challenges due to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, now officially named COVID-19. I am proud to say we are successfully navigating these choppy waters, keeping our operations going and continuing to serve our members as our top priority.
We have been providing you with the most up-to-date information and policies related to the novel coronavirus through our newly developed ‘Focus on the COVID-19’ online platform, to help reduce the potential risks and challenges of operating and living in China during these challenging times.
Link: https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/national-news/3131/focus_on_the_2019_ncov

Going to Russia?
Whereas China was saying the US was creating panic with its restrictions on entry for Chinese travelers, Beijing took a soft line in response to Russia announcing a blanket ban on all Chinese citizens entering the country, citing the “worsening of the epidemic in China”.
Russia had informed China in advance and the measures, to take effect on 20 February. “will be adjusted and even withdrawn” when the situation allows.
Russia’s entry ban for Chinese nationals will be partial and only affect those who travel with tourist, private, student and work visas, the country’s Foreign Ministry said later on, clarifying the conditions of a sweeping entry ban for Chinese citizens announced the day before.
Visitors with official, business, humanitarian and transit visas will still be allowed into the country, the Ministry said.

Singapore government videos about the 2019-nCoV (Covid-19)

Infectious diseases physician, Dr. Leong Hoe Nam, on what we need to know about 2019-Coronavirus. Good for understanding Covid-19 and the economic impact.
Three videos are produced by Gov.sg where Dr. Leong Hoe Nam, an expert and practicing physician in Infectious Diseases gives his insights:

• What we need to know about 2019-nCoV
• Tips on protecting ourselves.
• How it affects our daily routine

See: https://www.unscrambled.sg/2020/02/11/infectious-diseases-physician-dr-leong-hoe-nam-on-what-we-need-to-know-about-2019-coronavirus/

Infectious diseases physician, Dr Leong Hoe Nam, on what we need to know about 2019-Coronavirus

Highly recommended!

From other sources: How long does the coronavirus survive on a surface?
It is said that the coronavirus can survive only a very few hours on an object other than a living being and would die when dried up. Main transmission is still considered through coughing and body fluids from an infected person.

(source: Wechat posts)
Many persons however are not so sure… and many are “creative”… but also forget about their hands…

About the impact on industry and business

European businesses look to diversify operations outside China as coronavirus hits supply chains. China’s emergency measures to halt the spread of Covid-19 have put this year’s top-level summit with the EU at risk and risk disrupting the global supply chain, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China has warned, reported the South China Morning Post.
Even though Chinese officials said they were working to resume production, foreign businesses’ operations have been seriously disrupted and may be forced to look elsewhere for supplies, the Chamber said.
The group warned that manufacturers were not able to run at full capacity because of shortages of supplies such as masks and logistical problems caused by restrictions on movement.
Joerg Wuttke, president of the chamber, said the outbreak had made many businesses realize they had to diversify into other countries and avoid “putting all their eggs in one basket”. He said that while the Chinese market was “always a lure… people have now woken up to the fact that you must have a backup plan.” He continued: “You must have a good eye on diversity. And the China story, the only story, possibly is over.”
(Source: China Economic Review)

Fewer than a third of China’s nearly 300 million migrant laborers have returned to work.
China is grappling with competing demands to fight the Covid-19 epidemic and get its economy back on track, as businesses struggle to resume operations amid a shortage of workers, disrupted supply chains and sluggish demand, reported Caixin.
Industrial indicators illustrate slow resumption of economic activities, although policymakers have called for companies to restart production since last week. From Thursday to Monday, coal consumption by six major power plants supplying power to key production sectors likely fell around 49% from the comparable period last year, economists with Nomura International (Hong Kong) said.
Official estimates suggest that China’s migrant workers will make a total of around 300 million trips to return to the places they work in after the holiday, but only about 80 million trips had been made as of Friday, Liu Xiaoming, a vice minister of transportation, said on Saturday at a press conference.
Another 120 million trips will likely be made by the end of February, he said. This means about one-third of the country’s migrant workers will still not have returned to work at the beginning of March.
(Source: China Economic Review)

HSBC, one of Hong Kong’s most important banks, said it would cut 35,000 jobs over the next three years, in part because of disruptions caused by the outbreak.
The bank is working to cut US$4.5 billion in costs as it faces headwinds that include the outbreak and months of political strife in Hong Kong, one of its most important markets.
It was the latest company to show the impact of the fast-moving coronavirus that has gripped China, another one being Apple. Although many companies are getting back to work after a weekslong hiatus, the economy has been slow to get back on its feet.
(Source New York Times)

Coronavirus is seriously disrupting logistics in the Belgian industry. That was the first result from an investigation by the technology platform Agoria, that has members such as Proximus, Volvo Cars Gent and Siemens.
(Source: Belgian media)

La Libre Eco with Belga (14 Feb 2020)
The article claims that 49,000 non-Chinese companies are facing problems due to the virus. It could have world-wide consequences according to Altares Dun & Bradstreet. Also some 5 million companies around the world depend on Chinese imports.
Source: https://www.lalibre.be/economie/conjoncture/coronavirus-pres-de-50-000-entreprises-etrangeres-actives-dans-les-regions-chinoises-touchees-5e46712cf20d5a642285eb72

The world could face a shortage of antibiotics if the pharmaceutical industry’s supply problems posed by the coronavirus outbreak in China cannot soon be resolved, the head of a European business group in China warned on Tuesday, reported Reuters.
EU Chamber of Commerce President Joerg Wuttke told a roundtable in Beijing that the synchronization of supplies in China was being hampered by the outbreak, also highlighting problems in the car industry, while inventories were surging.
He also noted that companies were running out of packaging material and faced challenges with regulatory uncertainties.
(Source Reuters)

The debate about masks

There is a lot of discussion about prevention and cure Covid-19. Most people miscalculate how to prevent the virus. Massive home disinfecting has mostly no meaning if there are no visitors and if the few who enter immediately take off shoes and gloves (and like me put them on the heating to kill the germs). And of course wash hands and disinfect mobile with an alcohol tissue.

SCMP wrote:
Most doctors agree that the masks offer protection, but mainly from a wearer’s own hands rather than from airborne pathogens.
The primary purpose of surgical face masks is to prevent surgeons infecting patients during surgery, not to protect the wearer.
“The surgical mask is designed to prevent what is in the surgeon’s nose and mouth from getting into the surgical wound.”
Although medical specialists do not entirely agree on the effectiveness of masks against airborne germs, they do find consensus on the danger from hands and fingers, in spreading disease by touching potentially infected surfaces such as door handles. That information seems to be of greater benefit to the general public and is the reason all health authorities stress the importance of washing hands.
“One of the things the mask prevents you from doing is putting your hands, your fingers, on your nose and mouth, and that may help reduce transmission.”

My take: I have been using N95 masks for many years whenever pollution levels pass a certain level, when on my bicycle. That at least WORKS (see the difference new – used)! A good mask has a meaning in crowded places to avoid droplets in the air from infected people. And right now when I go shopping on my bicycle I use a motorcycle helmet with a full face visor.
More to come on this, wait for link to Singapore Government recommendations.

Experimental treatments for Covid-19

SCMP reports about experimental treatments for Covid-19 (15 Feb 20)
Plasma and stem cell therapy possible treatments
Zhang Xinmin, director of the science and technology ministry’s biology center, said the trial of convalescent plasma – taken from the blood of recovered Covid-19 patients – on 11 people with the virus had so far yielded positive results, with no side effects.
About 70 Shenzhen patients had also shown positive progress, with fewer side effects, to Favipiravir, an experimental antiviral drug. Meanwhile, Remdesivir, a US drug used to treat the Ebola virus, is being tested on 168 Wuhan patients presenting severe symptoms and 17 others with milder symptoms.

The Chinese government is also supporting research into stem-cell therapy as a potential treatment for the disease.
Research was under way into the use of stem cell therapy and rheumatology medicines used to treat systemic inflammatory response syndrome (Sirs) which has been found in some patients.
A computer model has been built to screen more than 70,000 drugs, eventually shortlisting about 100 existing medications for further experiment.
Of those chloroquine phosphate, an antimalarial agent, had responded well and was being tested on about 100 patients in Beijing and the southern province of Guangdong.

Second batch of experimental Gilead Coronavirus Drug arrives in Wuhan
A second batch of Gilead Sciences Inc.’s experimental antiviral drug remdesivir has arrived in Wuhan, where it will be tested on patients infected with the Covid-19 coronavirus, reported Caixin.
The drug was transported from the US to China by FedEx to be distributed to hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, for two ongoing clinical trials on a combined 760 patients.
They follow some 3,400 doses of the drug and 900 placebo doses that reached Wuhan’s Jinyintan hospital last week as part of Phase 3 trials, which began on Feb 6.
The trials are randomized, controlled and double-blinded, meaning neither doctors nor their patients know whether they are using the active drug or a placebo, so researchers can determine whether patients truly benefited from the new treatment or recovered on their own.

China Daily on medication

On 17 February China Daily published two articles.
The first one details the progress made with plasma therapy, and the difficulties to carry it out.
The second article gives a very good overview on the 3 areas of interest:

– medication
– vaccine
– treatment
– diagnosis

Because of its interest, see here the PDF:

200217 CDmedicine.pdf

It is a nice addition to the SCMP article I quoted.

WHO delegation without Americans?

SCMP 15 Feb 20
Mistrust between Beijing and Washington has tainted US offers of help to contain a deadly coronavirus outbreak, forcing the WHO into a political corner, analysts said.
US officials said they first offered to send American specialists to China as part of a WHO mission in early January but despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calls to deepen international cooperation in the public health crisis, that offer had yet to be accepted.
US officials said on Thursday that no American had been invited to China to take part, despite Americans accounting for 13 of the 25 names that the WHO submitted to China for the mission.
On last Friday, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the final WHO team comprised of 12 international experts and 12 from China, and would begin its investigation into the spread of the outbreak and its severity in the past weekend.

Update: still confusing situation as it seems American specialists did finally join.
However experts said the international team would be left with an “incomplete picture” of the outbreak if it did not go to Wuhan or Hubei; China said “Hubei was at a critical moment in its fight to stop the virus and might not have the capacity to work with the WHO mission right now.”

WHO said late on Sunday that the future path of the outbreak was “impossible” to predict, as international experts began meeting their counterparts in China.

Breaking news (but not a surprise)

China postpones year’s biggest political event amid coronavirus outbreak!
China’s annual parliamentary meeting, that was scheduled for early March, has been postponed, apparently because of the Covid-19 outbreak. It is known as the “Two Sessions”.