Restarting China’s economy

I feel the COVID-19 story is getting weirder, with Chinese propaganda and dubious rumors. And then the USA.

China is trying to kick its economy back into gear after draconian coronavirus countermeasures ground it to a halt.
Part of the workforce has begun returning to shuttered factories and offices, but restarting the industrial machine has proved to be more difficult than shutting it down.
The many cash-strapped consumers who missed paychecks may spend less, while businesses may have lower overseas demand as their customers are lowering orders (if any).
As people leave isolation, officials could face a new crop of infections so they remain paranoid about it.
More than 50 million migrant workers have not yet returned to their jobs, according to official data. Reason: long-distance buses have not returned to normal, leaving people stranded; migrants simply NOT allowed to return. Enormous crowds trying to pass the police controls to enter cities like Beijing. Total chaos.

Many businesses in Beijing can’t really restart as the majority of their staff is not able to return.
Market meltdown as global stocks fell sharply again on Thursday, as President Trump’s bungled attempt to address the coronavirus outbreak failed to ease concerns. Does not help either.
In Western countries still many fail to understand the enormous economic impact of cancelling tourism, business, sports and cultural events and shutting down shops: so many people deprived of income. They are consumers too and will refrain to spend.

Parents are getting tired and desperate having to take care of their kids at home. Couples are facing increased stress and domestic problems as they are not used to be at home together for so long. Domestic violence is on the rise and police ignore it.
Business travel and meetings are nearly impossible, tourism is dead.
At least China Daily admits there are “problems”:

So I repeat: no anytime soon we will see any “normal” life again. I leave the optimism to China Daily and the other muzzled Chinese media.

Chinese crazy rumors

Strangely I haven’t seen anything about this in international media, looks like they are clueless about what is going on in China. Nothing on CNN, The Guardian, SCMP.
Chinese propaganda has centered on another reality-defying narrative.
The new “news”: COVID-19 comes from abroad, developed by teams of Americans and Chinese, whatever whatever. All news “supported” by details on which laboratories and researchers were involved. No no, not coming from Wuhan. All news in Chinese. I spare you the details. Worse, Chinese swallow it.
Well, finally some news:
https://www.rtl.be/info/monde/international/pekin-soupconne-les-etats-unis-d-avoir-apporte-le-virus-en-chine-1203484.aspx

“Pékin soupçonne les Etats-Unis d’avoir apporté le virus en Chine”
In short (being one of the several variants of that “story”):
– American CDC admits some Americans did not die from the flu but from COVID-19;
– The Americans brought the virus to Wuhan during the World Military Games.
All pretty imaginative. Then why did other participants to those Games not get infected?

USA

As said repeatedly, the country is in total disarray with lack of testing, insufficient hospital beds and equipment to face a wave of new cases, and a health insurance system that does not work for many people so they will hide with their virus and infect many other; they have to go to work otherwise they have no income. Visiting a doctor or clinic is out of the question due to the cost.

Just look at one simple example. Think about the waiter in your restaurant, like in USA. Now he can’t work, restaurant closed. Will he get some salary? What about the tips he normally receives? How will he pay off his mortgage?

The real infection rate in the USA might be massively under-reported. Till people die in greater numbers, a fact they can’t hide…
The bureaucratic blundering made the country lose 2 months to come out with the appropriate virus test kits.

See also this comment on SCMP:
Coronavirus: Donald Trump’s speech was meant to reassure, but it did just the opposite
‘He is a reality-show expert. This is a real crisis. The happy ending is not guaranteed,’ communications strategist says. Televised Oval Office address offered an ineffective remedy in the European travel ban and fell short on other policy recommendations, according to analysts.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3075005/coronavirus-donald-trumps-speech-was-meant-reassure-it-did-just-opposite

Belgium in lockdown

The government has decided to cancel most social and sports events, closing down entertainment, restaurants, bars and all schools. Normal shops: many to reduce opening hours. Only pharmacies and food stores to open.

Contrary again to China, people have been emptying supermarkets to hoard food and other.
See overview of closing and cancellations::
https://www.rtl.be/info/belgique/societe/de-nombreux-evenements-annules-ou-reportes-a-cause-du-coronavirus-voici-la-liste-1202980.aspx
and
https://www.dhnet.be/actu/belgique/la-belgique-va-annoncer-de-nouvelles-mesures-plus-strictes-face-au-coronavirus-la-premiere-ministre-s-apprete-a-prendre-la-parole-5e6a8cfbd8ad582f316d985c

Stay the fuck home

Hilarious but not stupid advice:
https://staythefuckhome.com/

#StayTheFuckHome
A Movement to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic!
Our governments are failing at preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Slow reactions, public appeasement policies, and their urge to stabilize the economy are keeping them from taking the measures it takes to protect millions from this disease. It is time for us, as citizens of this earth, to take action now and do our part in fighting COVID-19.
Let’s put it bluntly: Stay The Fuck Home!

1. More Contagious Than the Flu
2. More Deadly Than the Flu
3. Possibility of Severe Symptoms
4. No Treatment, No Vaccine, No Immunity
5. Exponential Growth.

Actually many of the mentioned recommendations and data were mentioned earlier in my posts.

Also, I need to repeat: most infections spread by people yet to show symptoms according to scientists. So, we haven’t seen the real spread yet.

Germany and the rest of the world

Looks like WHO and others finally admitting the pandemic. As I predicted days ago.
The WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic on Wednesday, with 114 countries reporting combined cases that added up to nearly 120,000.
“In the days and weeks ahead we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of affected countries to climb even higher,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a press briefing in Geneva.

Only for those familiar with Belgian art…

Chancellor Angela Merkel: 60 to 70% of the German population could become infected.

Other people who have medical problems and need attention now neglected. This poses a serious risk.

Travel for business and leisure is now more dead than ever. Sport and all public events stopped.

The lack of testing in many countries with weaker economy and poor medical facilities is a ticking time bomb. I fear an explosion of new cases once the spread becomes visible. Think about Africa, India, South America… (and USA)

Anybody realizes the chain reaction in the world economy? A new brutal reality to ravage economies and societies. Killing globalization. A new Armageddon in the making.

Comprehensive COVID-19 map
John Hopkins University in the USA is producing a map with regular update of cases worldwide:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Good luck USA

I watched Trump and his press conference on 12 March morning Beijing time. What a sinister declaration, as usual.

Donald Trump announced suspension of travel from Europe to the US: “We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days, the new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight,” Trump said, adding that the suspension will not apply to Britain.

A leading US health official testified at a Congressional hearing on the coronavirus outbreak Wednesday that the number of people sickened by the virus in the US could hit “many millions” if appropriate steps were not taken.  “We will see more cases, and things will get worse than they are right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci – the widely respected director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases – warned members of the House Oversight Committee.
See also further down “A coronavirus lesson from China”.

As predicted: Beijing quarantine

Don’t say I did not warn you. Now all coming to Beijing, from ANY other place will face 14 days quarantine.
Chinese announcement: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rNqV3iLWZoN88JlNeHmfzw

Says CGTN (and all others): Beijing on Wednesday further tightened its prevention and control measures for foreigners as more imported novel coronavirus cases arrived in the city.
Everyone, including those not from the hard-hit countries, is required to undergo a 14-day quarantine at home or designated place, according to local authorities.
People who entered Beijing on business trips have to stay in designated hotels before he is cleared from a nucleic acid testing.

See also about Shanghai entry…

A coronavirus lesson from China: don’t make patients pay for tests and treatment

As reported by SCMP
People with lower incomes will be deterred from seeking treatment if they face health care costs, worsening the epidemic.
As the coronavirus continues to spread around the world, China has one important lesson for other governments in fighting the disease – be prepared to pay so that patients won’t let costs deter them from getting tests and treatment.
A coronavirus test reportedly costs about 370 yuan (US$53) in China. And in the southern city of Shenzhen, the average cost of treating the disease ranged from 23,000 yuan for elderly patients to about 5,600 yuan for minors, Chinese Hospital Management journal reported.
Some of the country’s treatment methods such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation are expensive but they are all covered by the government, which has earmarked 110.48 billion yuan for treatment, subsidies for medical staff and medical equipment.
In the US, where there have been 25 deaths among 696 confirmed cases, public anxiety is growing over the cost of testing.

The US government does not charge for coronavirus confirmation tests at designated laboratories but a trip to the hospital will incur other hefty expenses, in one case over US$3,200. Insurance lobby group America’s Health Insurance Plans said individuals needed to check their insurance providers for coverage of costs related to COVID-19.
As of Monday, only 1,707 people had been tested by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Japan designated COVID-19 as an infectious disease in February, making it the government’s responsibility to pay inpatient bills related to the coronavirus infection.
In Britain, about 18,000 people have received free testing since last month, and 373 have been confirmed as infected.
“Clearly, wherever you have to pay for health care, individuals with mild symptoms in the lower-income groups will hesitate to visit a health care facility, and that may also be the case in some individuals with severe disease. These behaviors will extend the epidemic.” said a professor. That is pretty obvious!

Role of China

Local media said the Red Cross Society of China was leading a team of medical experts heading for Italy on Wednesday, taking supplies and equipment with them.

Is the peak really over?

It follows a phone call between the two countries’ foreign ministers late on Tuesday, in which China’s Wang Yi responded to a request for help from his Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio. Wang told Di Maio that China would send medical equipment to the country, and also offered to send medical personnel to help tackle the outbreak in Italy, according to a statement on the Chinese foreign ministry website. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told Italian Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio that Beijing was willing to donate 100,000 high-tech masks to Italy, 20,000 protective suits and 50,000 diagnostic tests.

Meanwhile details of the cover-up continue to come out.
A Wuhan doctor who posted information about the new coronavirus on social media that was shared by the late whistle-blower Li Wenliang has broken her silence, saying she was muzzled by authorities for raising the alarm without their permission at the start of the outbreak.
Ai Fen, director of the emergency department at Wuhan Central Hospital, told Chinese magazine People that she posted an image of a diagnostic report on social network WeChat on December 30, showing that the patient had a pneumonia infection caused by a SARS-like coronavirus.
Ai’s interview suggests local health authorities in Wuhan, the center of the epidemic, missed an opportunity to issue a warning about an imminent outbreak before the virus spread and infected more than 117,000 people globally and caused over 4,200 deaths.
It was published on Tuesday but later deleted from the magazine’s WeChat account, prompting angry internet users to repost the article on other platforms.

The new PR initiative from China: we are not to blame. Again. distorting reality and worse, many Chinese start believing the fake news.
The Chinese government’s cover-up of the virus allowed it to spread unchecked in Wuhan for weeks, including among the 5 million city residents who left the city without being screened, leading to a national epidemic and inevitably to its spread outside China. There is no evidence COVID-19 spread in any human population before it spread in China.

From a member of the Stanford hospital board.

The tips I had posted here: well, they say it is a hoax and not correct. So I did remove it all while some tips I believe are correct. See:
“Posts are circulating false and misleading tips on social media — in some cases wrongly attributed to Stanford University — about how people can monitor and avoid the coronavirus.”

Viral Social Media Posts Offer False Coronavirus Tips

instructions for lift in China – the irrational toilet paper stuff

Latest from AXIOS and SCMP on 10 March

A quick COVID-19 Beijing update. International media now report a lot.
Just a few edited news flashes.

Global panic over the coronavirus

• Italy is entering a nationwide lockdown, all travelers to Israel are being placed in quarantine, Spain is closing schools and several countries are further tightening their borders.
• Italy’s nationwide quarantine policy means all public gatherings are banned at least through April 3. People across the country are not to leave their homes unless necessary, and travel will only be allowed for urgent reasons. Italy’s response to the Covid-19 appears to mirror China’s lockdown of cities across the country, but the sharp differences in the two countries’ government systems mean the restrictions in place will be nowhere near as extensive.
• Israel went further than any country to date in restricting its contact with the outside world by declaring that anyone arriving in the country will have to spend at least two weeks in quarantine.
• Saudi Arabia and Russia helped set off what became one of the worst days in the history of U.S. stock markets when they diverged in their responses to a sharp fall in global oil prices.
• There are growing fears of a global recession. Some countries are likely already there.
• French Culture Minister Franck Riester became the latest high-ranking politician to test positive for the virus.
• Portugal’s president tested negative but will still self-quarantine after a classmate of students he met with tested positive.
• The rate of cases reported in China continues to decline significantly.
• Concerns remain that Iran’s outbreak has been massively underreported.
• The United States’ mixed messaging over the coronavirus continued as a top health official warned that “many people” would be exposed to the coronavirus over the next two years while Genius Trump persisted with downplaying the significance of widespread transmission in the country. The crossed wires within the Trump administration stood in contrast to the WHO assertion that there was now a “real risk” of a global pandemic because of the virus.

Panic buying of toilet paper

Totally crazy and totally irrational. Did not see this happening in Beijing. I had to google it to try to understand the buying frenzy. OK, it IS totally irrational. Read this:
Dr. Dimitrios Tsivrikos: expert in consumer and behavioural science at the University College London:
He explained the difference between disaster panic and general panic, with toilet paper becoming a symbol of the latter.

“Disaster panic is normally for something you have more information on, such as a natural disaster. You know it is going to happen and you usually know it will last a couple days and you can prepare by being somewhat rational with what you buy.
But in public health issues we have no idea about the time or intensity and we get messages on a daily basis that we should go into panic mode that we buy into more than we need to. It’s our only tool of control. Because toilet paper has a longer shelf-life than many food items, is prominently featured in aisles and is big in size, we are psychologically drawn to purchasing it in times of crisis. The bigger they are, the more important we think they are.
If we had an international sign for panic it would be a traffic warning sign with a toilet paper roll in the middle.”

Forget your trip to Thailand

I already was expecting this so I made no plans for my Thailand escape. I am right…
Coronavirus: Thailand asks visitors from outbreak ‘danger zones’ to prove they’re not infected.
9 March 2020 SCMP
The new rule includes a 14-day quarantine period and applies to travellers from mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea, Iran and Italy.
Thailand’s aviation regulator has instructed airlines to ask passengers coming from high-risk areas for health certificates to establish that they are free of the new coronavirus.
Travellers who cannot provide such documentation should be prevented from boarding flights to the Southeast Asian nation, according to a Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand notice posted Monday. Carriers are liable for treatment costs if they fly in people who become sick with the Covid-19 disease caused by the virus, the notice said.
The new framework applies to mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea, Iran and Italy, all of which Thailand has designated danger zones for infection, as it steps up efforts against the outbreak that has infected 50 people in the country so far.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand, a government agency, wrote on Facebook on Monday that travellers coming from the six danger zones will be quarantined for 14 days, adding that more details will be announced soon.
“We advise all travellers to consider carefully whether they still want to pursue their journey,” the authority said.

How to stay safe

This new study is indeed alarming. Take note!
9 March 2020
Stephen Chen SCMP
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds. See excerpts:
Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away.
The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger.
Researchers said the case highlighted the importance of wearing masks on public transport.
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.
The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.
The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C, it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.
These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a “safe distance” of one to two metres.

European Chamber

As received on 10 March 2020:
COVID-19 Beijing Policy Updates
The Beijing Municipality announced on 3rd March during its daily press conference on the outbreak that people travelling to China from South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, and “other severely affected countries” are now required to conduct a 14-day quarantine upon arrival. See the pdf:

200303 BJgovnmt

Basically nothing new, as I reported. earlier. However as I noted, many compounds or health officials ignore this and mandate quarantine anyway.

Good insights for COVID-19

See this site with a lot of valuable insights:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) by Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie

Finally understood the following:
“The disease is called coronavirus disease. It is abbreviated as COVID-19. The virus is called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and it is abbreviated as SARS-CoV-2. In the same statement the WHO also explains that they themselves also refer to the virus as “the virus responsible for COVID-19” or “the COVID-19 virus” when communicating with the public.”

It also addresses what was in the previous post about the article in Belgium talking about “Exponential growth leads to large numbers fast”.

To quarantine or not quarantine

Beijing as usual makes our life a misery with its COVID-19 big confusion.
That applies to the quarantine rule, the opening and operation of restaurants etc.
So, economy back to normal is only for those with their heads in the clouds. Obviously people still are naive thinking there will be no pandemic. Oh well.

On Friday 6 March Premier Li Keqiang still did not entirely impose quarantine for all in Beijing. As China daily wrote on 7 March,  “Beijing mandates 14-day quarantine for inbound travelers from overseas coronavirus hotspots”, that would normally not apply to travelers from Belgium, at least not earlier in the past week.
In our compound we received the visit of “health officials” who wanted my wife to sign the papers, see the pics (basically agreeing to quarantine). I gave them the official publication of the Beijing Government stating people like my wife did not need the quarantine. They did not know about this (as usual) and were happy to get my printout.
After a second “visit” there was no imposed quarantine and only mandatory daily temperature check. Anyway my wife will avoid going out by her free will. And we adapted the new way to say goodnight.

Conclusion: I am afraid that anybody arriving from abroad will be mandated the 14-day quarantine, even with the announcement in China Daily (see pic). Any suspicious travel history will sound the alarm!

On another note, all school teachers are advised not to return to Beijing until further notice.

In the meantime Northern Italy imposed a quarantine/lockdown for 16 million people.

People at high risk unable to get assistance or tests in USA. Total breakdown of the system. Once they start real testing I expect the number of infections to go up dramatically. Reason why genius Trump is not enthusiastic to do so. See also further the Belgian article.

One Diner Per Table Suggestion Causes Confusion, Concern

Michael Wester in theBeijinger 7 March 2020
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RI0A_hC4OKVr69FkIcYdIg
Read the full article there.

A statement that small restaurants should limit diners to one per table made at Thursday’s city government press briefing on the coronavirus crisis has caused concern and confusion among Beijing’s restaurant owners and foodies.
A closer look reveals that this is not necessarily a new mandate, but some areas of town have already interpreted it as such.

The Beijing Youth Daily’s (app.bjtitle.com) headline on the story states the one per table rule
Regardless of what was said, some restaurants and property management companies, particularly those in malls, are taking the announcement as gospel and already enforcing a one person per table restriction.
“In order to further our work in epidemic prevention, I think we ought to do the following,” An official began, then listed 10 items:

• Restaurants must make clear lines of responsibility for epidemic prevention.
• Customers must be subject to temperature checks before entering.
• During the epidemic, dining in is not recommended; where dining in is absolutely necessary, eat in turns or separated from one another. To reduce customers from loitering too long, encourage take out and dining alone.
• Before dining, make sure you wear your mask; if you are planning to dine in a restaurant, be sure you are healthy and are not showing any symptoms of COVID-19. Wear your mask at all times except when eating.
• Make sure you wash your hands before dining.
• Use staggered methods of serving to prevent overcrowding.
• At ordering and paying stations, establish one-meter line markers to prevent customers from crowding these areas.
• Increasing distance between tables and having only one customer per table will be effective in limiting group dining.
• When dining, reduce socializing and concentrate on eating.
• Restaurants should heat sterilize all tableware using steam heat, boiling water or chemical sterilizers.

Some of these, such as the distance between tables and one-meter lines, have already been announced and enforced.
Diners visiting Beijing restaurants over the last two days report being told differing limits, from one to four per table, while others say no limit has been set.

A party of three were asked to dine at separate tables with one empty table in between; Thursday at Karaiya Spice House in the Kerry Centre (with my friend Glen in the picture…)

Like most of what has been happening across town as this crisis has unfolded, both interpretation and enforcement of policies that have been announced at a rapid-fire pace have been largely left to local-area police, building management and community associations.
Many restaurants are taking it upon themselves to enforce limits, even without prompting, simply to play it safe.
Any tightening of restrictions on dining is likely to further damage an industry that is already reeling from a massive decline in business as a result of the virus.

The end is far away

SCMP 8 March 2020
The Covid-19 epidemic caused by the coronavirus will not end this year as the contagion has spread worldwide, a leading microbiologist from Hong Kong has said.
Professor Yuen Kwok-yung from the University of Hong Kong, who advised authorities on control measures against the disease, said although the situation in mainland China and Hong Kong might improve in summer, there could be more imported cases from the southern hemisphere in winter.
“We think the epidemic will probably not come to an end,” Yuen said on a pre-recorded television interview aired on Sunday. “There will be what we call reversed imported cases. In the beginning other countries feared us, now we fear them for bringing in the virus.”
Yuen urged residents to avoid travelling at least until the end of the year.

Facing such a virus, immediate action is the key

How the coverup and delays in Wuhan created a worldwide pandemic. Indeed quick reaction is vital to halt the spread. Precious time was wasted allowing the Pandora box to open. Now Western countries face the same dilemma: they are also too slow to act. This news is actually … not new. See:
“China censors report about how authorities hid coronavirus genome sequence test results for 14 days”
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/03/07/china-censors-report-authorities-hid-coronavirus-

Actually Wuhan waited longer than 2 weeks to admit reality and take drastic action. It was too late with millions of people having moved out.

A stern warning in Belgium

Interesting article, in French. Worth a read.

All over the news…

“Coronavirus : ‘Face à sa propagation exponentielle, des mesures extrêmes s’imposent'”
In short:

– the pandemic is here with the exponential spread of the virus;
– Belgium is not prepared and has no real plan;
– we must avoid any contact with others as much as possible and use masks;
– Belgium can expect 50,000 cases in 33 days and 200,000 a week later unless drastic action is taken.
– in a case like this virus immediate response is a must
– the country should have stockpile of masks and other to face any such epidemic (strategic reserve of 400,000 masks)
– the data provided by the WHO are unreliable.

See:
https://www.lalibre.be/belgique/societe/coronavirus-face-a-sa-propagation-exponentielle-des-mesures-extremes-s-imposent-5e6381a0d8ad5835a1c8dfc3

Very interesting but alarmist read. I can agree with most except for the emphasis on masks as I have said many times. He does not mention enough washing hands and not touching surfaces.
With such a scenario in mind, I am afraid the USA is going to face a crisis…