Life in the city

The devil has a new name

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

RIP NCP

The WHO has given the devil has a new name, Covid-19; formerly known as NCP, 2019-nCoV or the Wuhan Virus.

At the opening of the conference, the head of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that the Covid-19 epidemic is a very serious threat for the rest of the world.

Mounting fears

According to news from Yahoo, scientists say at least 500,000 people may become infected with the coronavirus in Wuhan before it peaks in the coming weeks.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine put together a mathematical model to determine the spread of the disease in Wuhan, and they said it was likely to peak in mid-to-late-February.
Based on their estimates, at least one out of every 20 people in Wuhan — or about 500,000 people — could be infected by the time the virus peaks.

The WHO warned that the spread of the virus through people who never visited China might be “the tip of the iceberg”.
Gabriel Leung from the University of Hongkong tried to estimate “size of the iceberg”. He estimates that 60% of the world population could be infected by Covid-19. He is said to be a world expert on corona virus and joined some 400 specialists at the WHO conference in Geneva.

Maybe that’s all a bit overblown…

Mobility in most cities worse

Beijing and Shanghai impose new controls on residents as China battles to contain coronavirus, read:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049891/beijing-and-shanghai-impose-new-controls-residents-china-battles

China’s two biggest cities have announced fresh restrictions on residential communities to prevent the spread of the deadly new coronavirus, joining dozens of mainland cities that have gone into partial lockdown since the epidemic began last month.
Measures unveiled by the authorities in Beijing and Shanghai on Monday include stricter controls on the movement of residents and vehicles, compulsory mask-wearing and shutting down leisure and other non-essential community services.

Beijing would step up efforts to further restrict access to residential communities and compounds and introduce a citywide registration system for entries into Beijing. Cultural and recreational facilities will be closed while couriers and other delivery services will have limited access to housing estates and compounds.

See how deliveries are piling up at the main entrance of our compound and how compounds in Tianjin and Beijing monitor access.

As some said, with restrictions in place for the past two weeks, it felt like “living in a prison”. “I hope the period of lockdown will not last long because I want my normal life back.”

Containment “must not harm business”

As reported by SCMP, there is a conflict between the central government that wants many of the economic activities to restart and the infamous Chinese bureaucrats.
As millions of people in China prepared to return to work, Beijing has said the reopening of businesses should not be hampered by “crude and oversimplified” restrictions.
Up to 160 million people were expected to be returning to their cities of employment over the coming week, according to a Chinese ministry of transport official.

Some local governments have required companies to register and gain approval before resuming production, with business owners being detained for resuming without permission. However Beijing indicated on Tuesday that this went further than the central authorities had intended.
“Such a tendency must be stopped,” a delegate of the NDRC said. “We will strictly stop restricting resumption of production in this oversimplified and crude way.”
But local bureaucrats and alike just decide what they feel is OK, making it all a complete mess. And that happens all the time in Beijing, through the hygiene and other zillion departments. Their goal seems to be to harass small business, preferably run by foreigners.

And Reuters reports:
After reviewing reports on the outbreak from the NDRC and other economic departments, Xi Jinping told local officials during a Feb 3 meeting of the Politburo’s Standing Committee that some of the actions taken to contain the virus are harming the economy.
He urged them to refrain from “more restrictive measures”, it was said.
Local authorities outside Wuhan – where the virus is thought to have first taken hold – have shut down schools and factories, sealed off roads and railways, banned public events and even locked down residential compounds. Xi said some of those steps have not been practical and have sown fear among the public, they said.

But it seems many officials ignore the words of the President…

NCP is undermining the economy

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Severe impact

Most people do not realize the enormous impact and chain reaction. The NCP is undermining the economy, in China but also in the world. (NCP, previously called 2019nCoV)
If the epidemic can be under control and restrictions lifted by 1 April, that would be SUPER.
I am afraid that is too optimistic.
As for seminars, conferences, trade fairs, parties, big balls, and all: don’t count on it anytime soon.
Draw your own conclusions.
What I most fear: panic, social instability, paranoia, hysteria, overreaction, exaggerated restrictions, name it.

Eating at home, happy! TRUVAL: The Belgische FruitVeiling (BFV) is a cooperative of fruit growers, established in Sint-Truiden. Truval was chosen as the new name for the quality brand.
As for now, I stay in Beijing. Though I feel it’s worse than SARS when I was also here. I hope I can say, “I was wrong. All is well!.”

Supply chain affected

Already some factories outside of China have to stop production because the components they need from China are not arriving. Slowly those buyers will look for other suppliers, even unwillingly.
The same will apply to many export items such as consumer products. The problems that surfaced with the USA-China trade war will just get worse. Yes, few countries can compete with the efficiency and price levels of the Chinese supply chain but there are limits…

Foreigners and students

Many foreigners decided to go away or stay away because of the draconian restrictions and the fear to get sick. Then China will suddenly realize those annoying foreigners do contribute to the economy.
The education sector is already suffering, schools and universities to remain closed till 1 March (at least). That is not a big issue somehow but foreign families might get second thoughts of returning.

The service sector

Restaurants are forced to close. If they want to open, draconian measures. Max 3 people on one table. Distance between tables 2 m. Waiters to remain at safe distance to take orders. Restaurants cannot get their supplies, are prohibited access to their warehouses. As nearly all service staff is from outside Beijing, many can’t come back or are not (immediately) allowed to work. Or, they are afraid to go to work. So most won’t get any payment as most Chinese companies ignore the “laws”.
Want someone to repair the air conditioner, fridge, or do house repairs? Most are barred from working and/or barred from your compound.

Monday 10 February

China was supposed to get back to work on Monday but it was very, very subdued. Many companies and shops remain closed. Some of my favorite restaurants won’t open.
Morel’s Restaurant decided on Monday not to proceed with the opening and to wait at least one more week. Main reason: grocery deliveries as good as impossible due to often unreasonable bureaucracy and restrictions.

Renaat: we remain closed!
Legend Beer ordered not to open as “they receive too many guests”. Reopening date not clear, could be one or two weeks later, nobody knows.
Some restaurants continue to operate, such as Niajo, Hulu TRB (both in Sanlitun) and Caravan (Guanghua Lu), many focusing on home deliveries. But one must pick it up at the gate as deliveries cannot enter.

Is Beijing under lockdown?

I would say not really, certainly not like Wuhan.
But some restrictions are pretty draconian, no non-Beijing cars allowed, many compounds refuse visitors, some buildings under lockdown, access to many parts of the city (especially for transport of goods) seriously disrupted. But airport and railway stations are still open, however long-distance buses are stopped.
Smaller cities often impose meaningless house quarantines, even for people returning from overseas or from Beijing. Many of those restrictions are illegal says the central government…

Contamination issues

Chinese authorities announced on Monday that aerosol and fecal routes of infection remain unconfirmed.
Calls are now stronger to eliminate wildlife trade as China confirms the virus came from pangolins and bats as reported earlier.
All as reported in China Daily on 10 February.

“Ten days wait for the operation” “In China ten days to build a hospital”.

WHO is increasingly worried the virus could spread worldwide by people who never set foot in China. They said, maybe we have seen only the tip of the iceberg…
But compare: the lockdown of Wuhan alone equals the lockdown of entire Belgium. Imagine…

So what now?

The millions of Chinese in Wuhan and surrounding areas confined to their homes during the coronavirus outbreak have turned to the internet to alleviate boredom and do their work from home, boosting the fortunes of tech companies that offer services like mobile games, work conferencing and online health services.
While nobody knows how and when the health crisis will end, the business and tech landscape is likely to change by the time the crisis is over, creating a new set of winners and losers in China’s increasingly digitalized economy.

Economic impact of the NCP

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

No time to be an optimist

As I mentioned early about the economic impact of the NCP coronavirus, it could be dramatic. Despite all the positive messages from the Chinese government, in the sense that “the economy will fully bounce back when the epidemic is under control”, one has to be naive to believe it.
First of all, no reliable forecast when it WILL be under control.
Some health experts have expressed hope that the number of new coronavirus cases will peak in the coming weeks despite uncertainty over its transmissions.

The aerosol debate

One much debated issue is the possible transmission through “airborne particles and aerosols”. In Beijing, Feng Luzhao, from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, sought to dispel fears that aerosol transmission – the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols – was a way of contracting the illness. “At present, the main methods of transmission are by droplets and through contact … There is no evidence that the coronavirus can spread through aerosol transmission,” Feng said. (reported by SCMP)

See this “warning” circulating in China:
About the possibility of aerosol transmission (Expat Focus, Hangzhou)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8UMavbZeF-YFyTuqAQtiyA

My take: not convinced about the so-called danger, except in areas with lots of infected people transiting. At home I don’t want to know about it. I have no visitors, no “central air conditioning”. I just take my own precautions and occasionally clean the floors with some Dettol in the water.

It’s around the world

The economic repercussions are already felt outside of China.
Hotels in France and other locations that are normally overflowing with tourists are suddenly deserted. Sales in the duty free shops are to plummet, knowing that the Chinese buy like half of the luxury products in the world. As for now, without any forecast when that will end, all organized tourist tours from and to China are stopped.
As many as 140 million Chinese citizens travel abroad every year spending US$250 billion. Expect a huge drop.
Airlines suffer massively and fire pilots and other staff (or put on unpaid leave).
Look at all the tourist spots that will see their Chinese invasions disappear.

Worst in China

Strict quarantine measures and transport lockdowns to contain the spread have brought China’s industry to a virtual standstill.
With all the draconian measures restricting travel, even locally, tourism in China is becoming a disaster industry.

It also affects all the small shops and restaurants that are asked to close. Those people lose all their income and can’t cope with it. Many have to pay high rents and salaries. A major KTV in Beijing is firing 200 staff. Many restaurants and bars fire their staff and won’t pay salaries despite the “obligation” ordered by the authorities. Only foreign-owned enterprises will try to obey – until they go bust.

During Spring Festival many Chinese were counting on making big money, in the entertainment, food & beverage, local markets and all. They got zilch.

Restart activities?

China tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak on today Monday 10 February.
Major cities across China are preparing for the return of millions of workers after an extended holiday, but as the coronavirus outbreak continues to rage, opinions are mixed on the safest approach.
Ministry of Commerce said in Beijing on Sunday that companies were “encouraged to resume business on the basis of sound preparation against the pandemic”.
Central and local governments are trying to balance the need to control the outbreak, boost supplies for frontline medics and minimize the impact on the economy.

More about the economic issues to follow.

 

Novel coronavirus pneumonia

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

The Wuhan virus has a name, as for now

China’s National Health Commission has given the virus a temporary official name – novel coronavirus pneumonia, or NCP.
China Daily: ” Facts about the novel coronavirus: Transmission”, see:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/06/WS5e3bd7a2a31012821727588f.html

The “facts” are not complete. As far as we know, the virus likes metal surfaces more than other. And nothing said about heath killing the virus, see previous post.

Where does NCP come from?
Interesting new study, as per China Daily:
“Pangolins a potential intermediate host of novel coronavirus: Study”

Pangolin

CNN picture

See: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/07/WS5e3d13dca310128217275d3b.html

That does not eliminate the bats as they could still be another intermediate host of the virus.
I have to admit… when in Brazil in the seventies I did eat some of the local look-alike pangolins, that time considered a “local delicacy”. They are called “tatu” in Brazil, “armadilho” in Portugal. They are not pangolins.
And when in Vietnam, I was invited to a dinner in Saigon with on the menu a life fruit bat. I spare you the details of that meal.

Mourning and anger

Many are mourning the death of doctor Li Wenliang.
Li, 34, died after contracting the coronavirus. He had earlier been reprimanded by police for alerting his friends about the outbreak in December.

There has been a lot of confusion and contradictions about his death. He was (officially) reported dead on 6 February at 21:30, then, “not yet”, then REALLY dead the next day. And as always the censors tried to clean it all up. The confusion has made even worse the mounting anger of many Chinese on how the doctor was treated by the authorities.
See some of the contradictory news clips about the timing of his death, for those who read Chinese. I omitted the many expressions of sadness and anger of friends on Wechat to protect them.

China Daily about the doctor

Article “Nation mourns doctor who succumbed to virus”:
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/08/WS5e3ddb45a310128217275eb9.html

At least the newspaper gives a pretty honest account, leaving aside the mystery about the exact timing of his death.
It says:
“On China’s social media platforms, condolences poured in with hundreds of millions of views.
Many were also questioning the possibility of a dereliction of duty by Hubei officials for ignoring Li’s early warning and questioning him for so-called rumors, which later turned out to be true.
After being approved by the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the National Supervisory Commission made a quick response on Friday by deciding to send a special group to Wuhan to conduct a comprehensive probe over issues regarding Li, according to a brief release on the joint website of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the NSC.”

Exploring empty Beijing

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Snow melting

After two days of snow and slippery roads the sun came out, time for exploring empty Beijing with the virus outbreak. It is supposed to be the last weekend before business is to start again on Monday 10 February. Not sure that will be a real event. Still so many restrictions in place and many people are not back yet.
Jumped on my bicycle and this time with my big helmet that provides real protection, including against the Wuhan coronavirus.
As temperature was well above zero C, roads were easier than 2 days ago (see the street close to my compound on 6 February).

The streets in normally traffic-clogged Sanlitun were very empty.
See the pics. For those familiar with this region, it shows Gongti Xi Lu, Gongti Dong Lu, Gongti Bei Lu, Sanlitun Nan Lu.

Not much open

The vast majority of shops, shopping centers and restaurants are closed, mainly imposed by the authorities. Soho Sanlitun completely dead, all locked up. Tai Koo Li still a bit in operation but really empty. The area of XL Bar and Restaurant totally fenced off, what the hell.
Some hardcore outlets are still open: Groovy Schiller’s, Lily’s American Diner, Mala Bocca (all strongly recommended). My usual Jenny Lou was open but I went again to Jingkelong Supermarket on Gongti Bei Lu. Busy, with basically everything available and at reasonable prices.
So, again filling up the fridge. Had lunch today with a steak from Jingkelong and (dried) mushrooms from Shanxi I found at home. All nice.

Fighting the virus

You read a lot of contradictory recommendations about masks and stuff, I take all that with a spoon of salt as we say.
See these interesting guidelines:

I also read a piece that says masks are often more dangerous than good. And that you throw away used masks after a short use and when wet. Etc. etc.
OK, allow me to dissent. Been using the same N95 mask for a few days. As pollution is rather mild, it does not become clogged. When I arrive home:
– booths, mask, gloves, scarf promptly go on top of the heating radiators (they are real hot) where they stay for hours. Virus killed.
– I do not touch my face before washing hands and that after emptying the shopping bags.
– I wash hands frequently, especially after touching the items from the supermarket. In the shops I use my (biking) gloves and very little my hands (except for Wechat pay on my mobile).

That’s basically it.

Jiayou jiayou China and Wuhan

I was asked to make some clip to show how I cope/feel with the coronavirus in Beijing.
See here a segment (supposed to be the final segment).

200205 homeclip2b

(click on it to view)
They wanted it in “our” language and I went for French as more people can understand than in my native Flemish. I am waiting for the link once they post them online (two media). Done with zero preparation and automatic recording on the mobile, being Home Alone.