No need for all that panic

While the COVID-19 is now spreading all over the world, many countries adapt a balanced approach for the coronavirus. Much as I have been recommending myself.

– The use of masks is regarded as mostly useless except in closed locations with a higher risk of contamination, or when meeting people with probable infections. E.g. using a mask when walking on the street is said to be totally unnecessary… tell that to the Chinese… The Netherlands generally recommends NOT to use masks in most circumstances!
– Mortality rate is now often set at 1 to 2% as many cases are actually not even reported.
– Gatherings of many people are now banned in many European countries and many events are being cancelled.
– France recommends to stop kissing each other when meeting.
– Overall specialists agree the number one precaution is to avoid touching suspicious surfaces and to frequently wash hands.
– In several countries schools are being closed.
– People at risk are the elderly, people with reduced immunity, with underlying health issues.

Also noted: every year in China 300,000 people because of “normal” lung infections. And every year around the world some 250,000 to 500,000 die of the seasonal flu.

In times like this you need some humor

When in quarantine of some kind, here is a good solution to put a smile on your face:
“LAUGH AND GET WISER!”

or you can watch the grass grow in your office…

Some good tips on COVID-19 and the overblown use of masks:

“Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths. The truth about the protective value of face masks and how easy it is to catch Covid-19.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/worse-than-flu-busting-coronavirus-myths

Coronavirus: don’t bank on epidemic easing in the summer, scientists say

Seasonal viruses tend to die off as the weather warms, but not enough is known about the new strain to assume it will react in the same way, experts say. SARS was brought under control in 2003 by an ‘extremely intense public health effort’, but it never disappeared, professor of epidemiology says.
Josephine Ma SCMP 29 February 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3053008/coronavirus-dont-bank-epidemic-easing-summer-scientists-say

Scientists around the world are still learning about the new coronavirus and how it spreads.
While there have been suggestions that the novel coronavirus outbreak may weaken as the weather gets hotter – as appeared to happen with SARS in 2003 – some scientists say Covid-19, the disease caused by the contagion, could pose a health risk for some time to come.
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology and director of the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in the United States, said it was a “prevailing misconception” that SARS disappeared in the summer of 2003.
“I think the word ‘disappear’ is a terrible word for what happened with SARS,” he said. “SARS was controlled by extremely intense public health efforts, heroic and perhaps unprecedented in modern times. It did not disappear at all.”

Impact on the Brussels hotel sector

Hotels in Brussels estimate losses that already mount to 10 million euro according to the Brussels Hotels Association. They said it is only the tip of the iceberg…
Source 29 February 2020 – Belga/Knack

Bert Hofman reports

Just came in the report from Bert Hofman, Director, East Asian Institute, Professor in Practice, Lee Kuan Yew School, National University Singapore and former head of the WB in China.
The report is confidential.

It does mention many of my earlier figures from the National Bureau of Statistics about the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI). Many of his statements already appeared in my earlier posts, such as the impact on different sectors: tourism, box office revenues, transportation, impact on supply chain, restarting the industry, property sales, impact on foreign companies and on SME overall, the surveys by the different chambers of commerce, the impact on the stock markets; and of course the spread of the COVID-19.
Here is the link to his (public) commentary:
https://research.nus.edu.sg/eai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/02/EAIC-12-20200228.pdf

Should I continue writing?

I wonder if my COVID-19 website serves any purpose. People around me seem never to read it and still talk a lot of nonsense. I do not try to be a news channel, I rather try to give a balanced mix of news people should pay attention to.
I see how many people see my post announcement on my media. And how many (read: rather few) bother to visit the website and spent some time to read.
Maybe I am wasting my time.
Appreciate any feedback.

No more Corona beer?

In the USA 38% of the people turn away from Corona beer. You can guess why.
Once again proves all the crap going around. And if anybody thought Americans were more clever than that, bad guess. Hey they even elected and love an idiot president who tries to prove the democrats are behind the virus.
Honestly.

Impact on the Chinese industry

The managers buying index went down in February from 50 in January to 35.7 in February. An index of 50 and above is growth. Under 50… you guess.
Now the question is how quickly the Chinese industry can recover.
In Beijing still a mess with every local community imposing its own (unlawful?) rules. Restaurants barely open. The city went basically dead. So many people running out of money.
Two small shops “reopened” close to me but you cannot enter. Great to shop, so I’ll skip that. “Hey my friend do you have some nice nice soya sauce? Ni shuo shenme? Ting budong”.

Open yet closed.

As reported by China Policy:
COVID-19: a de-globalisation stress test for world economy
Economic Observer -13 February
context: The COVID-19 epidemic has caused major disruptions to international travel, trade and global supply chains. The Financial Times described the situation as ‘an experiment in de-globalisation’.
China’s status in global supply chains is irreplaceable, but its dominance may be weakened by the epidemic, argues Chen Jibing Economic Observer columnist.
The fight against the epidemic is like a forced ‘de-coupling’. It is also a test for the world economy: how will it cope without China, an engine of the global economy and ‘factory of the world’?

disruption to travel and transportation

• at least 30 airlines have suspended or reduced China flights
• dozens of countries announced travel bans or advisories
• tourist destinations hit hard
• international freight shipping suffers heavy losses

supply chains disrupted

• South Korean and Japanese carmakers suspend production
• European and US carmakers may be forced to close in weeks
• China is at the centre of supply chains of multiple industries
• resumption of production threatened by risk of further infections

drop in Chinese demand hits global commodities market

• oil prices decline due to lack of demand
• Chinese importers may invoke force majeure
• other commodities, such as Australian iron ore, will also be hit
• China may defer purchases promised in US Phase 1 deal

impact on global economy much worse than SARS

• Asian countries, including Australia, will be hit hardest
• may cause instability in oil-producing countries: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran
• global supply chains will be gradually restored after outbreak
• but economic planners will be forced to consider supply chain diversification

Whistleblowers unloved

A lot of harsh criticism as the doctor who warned about the virus in Wuhan was reprimanded by the police.
Well, a whistleblower in USA who gave the alarm that the repatriation of Americans in Wuhan was done by a an unprepared team was sidelined.
Hm they should shut up over there and stop criticizing Wuhan.

Olympics anyone?

I was (to put it mildly) deeply involved in the preparations of the 2008 Olympics. And we had SARS. We did it.
This time is far worse.

Honestly, Olympics soon in Japan?

Worldwide and in Beijing

Reality started to sink in this week. As the COVID-19 outbreak swept through Europe and the Middle East, not to mention Brazil, governments that were previously skeptical of its seriousness began to change their tune. Except for genius Trump of course.
In Beijing and in China, draconian restrictions still wreck our daily lives and the economy.

Schools remain closed and affect parents who now have to take care of their kids at home and help for distance learning, as long as they have enough computers and the Internet works.
In Beijing my usual supermarket Jingkelong Sanlitun still has ample supplies but has started to limit the amount of customers inside, I had to wait in line to enter. But it went smoothly.
There is still lots of confusion about quarantine rules. See here a document circulating with “rules”, no date no official stamp.

200227 Beijingregulations

Most restaurants are still closed. Legend Beer was not allowed to reopen. Morel’s Restaurant is planning to open on 12 March. The Russian Pushkin Literary Restaurant as well as the entire shopping complex where it is located, closed. In my street, Gongti Xi Lu, all venues are closed.

Industry news

Google and Microsoft are accelerating efforts to shift production of their new phones, personal computers and other devices from China to Southeast Asia amid the worsening coronavirus outbreak, with factories in Vietnam and Thailand expected to be the beneficiaries, reported Caixin.
Until now, most if not all Google smartphones and Microsoft-built computers have been made in China. The US-China trade war caused many industries — especially technology — to consider the risks of overreliance on China for manufacturing. The coronavirus has only added to concerns about concentrating production too heavily in one place. (Source: CER 28 February 2020)

Amcham:
Nearly a third of companies operating in China have seen their revenues slashed as the coronavirus outbreak disrupts activity, a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in China showed on Thursday, reported Reuters.
Travel restrictions and stringent quarantine rules implemented since January to minimize contagion risks in China have effectively paralyzed business activity.
While the Chinese government has recently reversed some of the curbs outside Hubei province, the virus’s epicenter, to support the economy, nearly a third of the companies said they only expect business operations to return to normal by end-March. Some 12% believe delays will persist through the summer.
Most of the 169 companies surveyed said it was too soon to count the costs of the disruption, but about 10% said they are reporting at least RMB 500,000 (US$71,298) of losses a day.

European Chamber

The European Chamber has issued its own report. A must read.
“EU firms ‘get another wake-up call’ about China and call for it to reform, as coronavirus hits profits. Profits down 20% for almost half of European businesses operating in China, according to their survey. Companies call for level playing field and end to ‘patchwork of conflicting rules’, as well as financial relief measures following outbreak
SCMP – 28 February 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3052662/eu-firms-get-another-wake-call-about-china-and-call-it-reform

Their report published on Wechat is so telling that I quote it here entirely.

COVID-19 Survey Report: The Impact on European Business in China

EUCCC 27 February 2020
Between 18th and 21st February 2020, a total of 577 member companies of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China and the German Chamber of Commerce in China participated in a joint flash survey on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on European business in China.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber) and the German Chamber of Commerce in China (German Chamber) today released details of a joint survey on the effects of COVID-19 on European business in China.
The results show that the impact has been severe overall, with every single survey respondent suffering the consequences to varying degrees, and being subject to restrictions and often conflicting regulations.
Many companies that have been permitted to reopen lack the necessary inputs/staff to resume full operations, the customers to buy their goods/services or the means to move goods and people to meet demand.

Key Findings

• Almost 90% of respondents report a medium to high impact, while half plan to lower annual business targets.
• Nearly half of respondents forecast a double-digit drop in revenues for the first half of 2020, and a quarter expect to see a drop of over 20%.
• Major challenges include unpredictable rules, highly restrictive quarantine demands and extensive pre-conditions to restart operations.
• Half of respondents face inconsistent rules applied across different jurisdictions and at different levels of government, which can frequently change, often at short notice. For example, deliveries can be subject to multiple onerous restrictions when passing through provinces, cities and even districts.
• More than 300 European companies are actively supporting efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, and around 70% have donated medical equipment to crisis regions, contributed financially to the fight against the virus, and supported logistically.

Mr. Joerg Wuttke
President, European Union Chamber of Commerce in China
The patchwork of conflicting rules that emerged from the fight against COVID-19 has produced hundreds of fiefdoms, making it next to impossible to move goods or people across China.
While virus containment is the most important task, standardising measures across larger jurisdictions should also be prioritised to get the real economy back on its feet.

Dr. Stephan Woellenstein
Chairman, German Chamber of Commerce, North China
China finds itself performing a precarious balancing act with two important but divergent tasks: keeping firm with virus prevention measures while fighting for a return to economic normalcy.
This will require the Chinese Government to release supporting measures for those most affected – especially SMEs – until operations normalise.

The USA is not a good example

COVID-19 is all but sure to spread in the United States. “It’s not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,” Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a news briefing on Tuesday.

The outbreak is also occurring amid a health care affordability crisis in the United States. On Monday, The Miami Herald reported the story of a man who developed flulike symptoms after returning from China last month and got tested at a hospital. He did not have the coronavirus. But two weeks later, he received a bill for $3,270, $1,400 of which he was responsible for. “How can they expect normal citizens to contribute to eliminating the potential risk of person-to-person spread if hospitals are waiting to charge us $3,270 for a simple blood test and a nasal swab?” he asked.

Last year, the U.S. administration shut down a program dedicated to identifying and researching animal viruses with the potential to infect humans — in other words, viruses like COVID-19. Trump has also proposed significant cuts to several health care agencies, even as he asked Congress for US$2.5 billion in emergency funding to fight the outbreak.

A sad but so typical example: Caravan just closed

Badr Benjelloun, founder and proprietor of Caravan, is (or was…) a member of my Old China Hands little club. He is one of the visible victims of the virus and of the mess created by the authorities.
I attach the full article of TheBeijinger as it gives a perfect image of what is all going wrong:
“Done in by a F**king Corona”: Caravan Officially Closes – theBeijinger – 27 February 2020

200227 Caravan

The main issues:
– business was down 95% year-on-year with no visibility;
– Beijing had forced many venues to close because of its total paranoia for the 70th Anniversary on 1 October 2019. All without any logic and depriving the outlets of income with zero compensation;
– all the empty talk about “helping” by the authorities like reducing rents and other never helped anybody depending on unreasonable landlords who instead of lowering rents want an increase;
– the “rules” imposed by local authorities are unclear, arbitrary and often meaningless. There is zero coordination.

We will miss the Caravan, one of the many killed by Beijing “management”. More to follow I am afraid.

For our Dutch-speaking friends and Belgians

The updates COVID-19 of today provide some interesting information for Belgians and Dutch-speaking friends.

The University Hospital in Antwerp (Universitair Ziekenhuis Antwerpen – UZA) is preparing to receive patients infected with the virus. Building a special hospital unit with containers so they can be isolated from other patients. (Source: De Standaard 26 February 2020)

The University KU Leuven has set up a coordination committee to deal with the virus.

Excellent update in Dutch on COVID-19, in Europe and around the world:
“De hele wereld strijdt tegen het uit China afkomstige nieuwe coronavirus Covid-19, met vaak verstrekkende gevolgen voor onder meer de economische en de sportwereld. Volg hier de laatste ontwikkelingen.”
https://www.knack.be/nieuws/wereld/coronavirus-duitsland-staat-aan-het-begin-van-epidemie/live-normal-1569303.html

It gives details on the European countries with recent cases: Italy, France, Spain, Germany, UK, Greece, Croatia, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Georgia, North Macedonia, Austria, Romania. And more of the worldwide propagation.
(Source: Knack)

COVID-19 details revealed

Coronavirus far more likely than SARS to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, according to a research team from Nankai University; it shows the new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.
The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the SARS virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.
The discovery could help to explain not only how the infection has spread but also where it came from and how best to fight it.
This could be the reason why COVID-19 is more infectious than other coronaviruses.
(Source: SCMP)

The impact for EU companies

Coronavirus, trade war a ‘double whammy’ for foreign firms in China:
Containment measures for disease dashed hopes that trading conditions might improve, says chairman of southwest branch of EU Chamber of Commerce in China.
See SCMP https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3052529/coronavirus-trade-war-double-whammy-foreign-firms-china-eu

Some quotes:

Authorities must now provide firms with clear guidelines and support to help them get back in business.
While cities across China are trying to get back to normal after mandatory lockdowns and other restrictions, for many the damage has already been done.
Many in the business community have complained of manufacturing being severely disrupted and that the emergency measures introduced to keep firms operational have resulted in massive cost increases, lengthy delivery delays and, ultimately, the loss of customers.
Some member companies have already moved certain production lines to factories they have elsewhere in the world, to supply the goods that they cannot supply from China.
The concerns were echoed in a survey published on Tuesday by the British Chamber of Commerce in China. The poll of 135 British firms said that a shortage of face masks was the main problem for manufacturing companies trying to restart their lines, while the lack of clarity was also causing concerns.

Read the article for more details.

Caixin added:

The surveyed British firms said the biggest impacts of the virus came from reduced demand, global travel disruption and ongoing uncertainty. More than half of the businesses’ offices in China remain closed and about one-third have postponed investment decisions, although 70% said they had not shuttered their Chinese mainland manufacturing facilities.

See also this from Sinocism:
Very detailed analysis of the coronavirus’ impact on Chinese economy by former NDRC economist Zhang Anyuan. He believes it will be “extremely difficult” for China to achieve the 5% growth goal for 2020 if there is zero growth in Q1. He also said the capital flight out of China in the past years has been shocking. His calculation suggests that since 2015 the capital flight not included in China’s official statistics has totaled nearly one trillion USD.

American drugs and Amazon sellers in danger

About 150 prescription drugs — including antibiotics, generics and some branded drugs without alternatives — are at risk of shortage if the coronavirus outbreak in China worsens.
China is a huge supplier of the ingredients used to make drugs that are sold in the U.S.
The FDA declined to comment on the list, but said in a statement that it’s “keenly aware that the outbreak could impact the medical product supply chain” and has devoted additional resources toward identifying vulnerabilities to U.S. medical products.
(Source: Axios)

Thousands of Amazon.com Inc. sellers who built their businesses using China’s cheap and efficient manufacturers are on the spot as the coronavirus shuts factories there. Sellers say Amazon’s ranking algorithm demotes products that are out of stock. To avoid that painful fate, many are raising prices to slow sales, and attempting to shift production to other countries.
Hmmm American consumers will feel the pain…
(Source: Sinocism)

Trump the genius in virus

Saw most of the White House press conference on the coronavirus.

Pathetic, with all the sycophants heaping praise on the emperor. And the emperor contradicting his own specialists and minimizing the seriousness of the outbreak. Thanks to him the CDC has seen budgets cut and is short of staff.
So, being well prepared is a bit of wild imagination.
Also having vice president Mike Pence being in charge with zero experience will certainly help.
The budget promised by the White House is also considered inadequate.
How can the U.S. stop COVID-19 when the seasonal flu rages all over the country killing tens of thousands?

Beijing to quarantine people if they visited countries seriously hit by coronavirus

26 February (Reuters) – China’s capital will quarantine people for 14 days at home or in groups if they have been to countries seriously hit by the coronavirus, the city’s health commission told a press briefing on Wednesday. One country is South Korea.

China more stable

While China looks like becoming more stable, we see COVID-19 spreading over the world. Read international news and you see how many new cases in new countries are popping up. Frightening is the fact we may not even know when and how the virus will rampage in South America and Africa where detection is poor. Once it starts there, good luck. The spread in Italy and Iran with high death rates is a warning for what to expect next.
No time for optimism.
Maybe China will be the first to more or less go back to “normal”, but when? I believe we need at least to look at June at best more a more normal situation.

Even if China restarts…

People ignore the enormous impact of the virus already today, as I pointed out repeatedly. Container ships are being systematically stopped to sail from China to its export markets. Logistics and supply chains: chaos could get even worse.
The financial damage in China is still underestimated, forget all the nice outlooks in China Daily. Consumers will not restart spending that soon as many are losing income and will even get bankrupt. Real estate, tourism, car industry, steel industry, F&B, entertainment and so on: damage will take a long time to repair. So many people losing income.
Export business still is facing shipment issues and face-to-face business restrictions.

See the view from PwC:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/q9xPF4vhbIHD2yvQOzv4qw

The overview is interesting as it tries to address the different economic sectors and how they are being affected. I quote:

“In the short term, the impact of the virus on China’s economic growth will be very obvious. Since the outbreak, many domestic and foreign institutions have made their estimations. Most of them believe that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter may be about 4%, a decline by about 2 percentage points. The growth rates in the next three quarters will gradually pick up depending on when the outbreak ends, and the annual GDP growth will show a “V-shaped” pattern.
All things considered, this outbreak will far surpass SARS 17 years ago in its impact on the economic growth. On the one hand, the scale of this outbreak as of now is already much larger than the previous one, whether in terms of confirmed cases or deaths. On the other hand, as compared with the SARS period, things have become very different in terms of growth environment, industrial structure, and the room for policy stimulus, which are less favorable to offsetting the impact than years before. However, like any disaster, the impact of the Novel Coronavirus disease is sure to be temporary. When the outbreak is over, the economic growth will soon return to normal as determined by the general course of things.
In light of the prevailing analyses and estimations of domestic and foreign institutions, we believe that if the outbreak could be largely over in late March or early April, the growth rates in the four quarters of this year may reach 4.5%, 5.0%, 5.8%, and 5.7% respectively. The annual growth rate may be 5.2-5.3%.”

The million dollar question is: “When the outbreak is over, the economic growth will soon return to normal…” Yeah. WHEN WHEN.

I guess this hotel is having bad business too.

Blame COVID-19.

And in the U.S. …

Coronavirus: US outbreak now inevitable, leading American health official warns:
“It is not so much a question of if, but when. Data over the last week has raised our expectation that we are going to have community spread here.” says Nancy Messonnier of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in USA.
SCMP, 26 February 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052337/coronavirus-us-outbreak-now-inevitable-top-american-health

An outbreak of the coronavirus in the United States is now inevitable, the leading US health official said on Tuesday, as infections and deaths related to the Covid-19 disease continue to rise beyond China and signs point toward a global pandemic.
Of course we all hope it won’t spread that much in North America. Cross fingers.
As usual, genius Trump has other ideas. Idiot.
As for a possible vaccine most agree it will not be available this year. Don’t dream…

About my posts

If you arrive here, it means you did read all.
Just to say, my only goal is to keep my connections and friends informed about our situation here. There is too much crap going around. People are so superficial and never read or research stuff as they should. I try to scan carefully the news to give a correct and balanced view.
Yes I have my personal views, like on how to use masks. I don’t share the hysteria around it, actually using the same (good) mask for one week but always heating up when back to kill the virus. See the articles and posts about it that prove my point. Most important are your hands. And never touch your face unless back home and after disinfecting your hands (and mobile).